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Catastrophic Economic Damages Valuation Methodology Issues in Insurance Claims and Litigation


Expert Witness: Don Coker
How to recognize, establish and effectively demonstrate the various elements of Catastrophic Economic Damages for litigation is explained by renowned nationwide banking and economic expert witness Don Coker.

It’s a fact that some form of monetary, value, or some other economic loss is an element in many insurance claims settlements as well as in many lawsuits that may or may not involve insurance matters. Catastrophic Damages, by definition, exceed damages that typically would be classified as “normal” damages. They typically involve damages that cover a more widespread geographical area than do other types of damages. This article explains the process that is used to determine the amount of Catastrophic Economic Damages loss.

Some typical causes of Catastrophic Damages are:

● Weather events such as
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a hurricane or a tornado.
● Weather-related events such as a flood or mudslide.
● A flood caused by the failure of a dam or levee.
● Earthquakes.
● Volcanic eruption, blast, lava flow, ash clouds.
● Industrial accidents such as a gas leakage, explosion, etc.
● Oil well or pipeline explosion.
● Mine collapse.
● Transportation disasters such as an aircraft crash, train or subway crash.
● Bridge collapse.
● Terrorism-related damages.
● Any other large-scale damages event.

Catastrophic Damages may affect different damaged persons or entities to different degrees of Economic Loss.

Overview of the Process for Establishing Economic Damages from a Catastrophic Event that is the Proximate Causal Event

Recognizing, establishing and effectively demonstrating Economic Damages for insurance or litigation requires a holistic comparative view of the damaged person’s or entity’s situation prior to and after the proximate causal event, a realistic and reasonable multi-year projection of how the damages will affect the damaged person or entity in the future, and a net present-value calculation to provide a current damages estimate that will also incorporate future damages.

Let’s break the process down into its comprehensible components:

Step 1. Establishing the Economic Situation Before the Proximate Causal Event.

Step 2. Demonstrating the Most Likely Future Economic Situation Without the Proximate Causal Event.

Step 3. Defining the Proximate Causal Event and Tying it to the Damages It Caused.

Step 4. Establishing the Most Likely Future Economic Situation After the Proximate Causal Event.

Step 5. Demonstrating the Difference Between the Most Likely Future Situation Without the Proximate Causal Event and the Most Likely Future Situation After the Proximate Causal Event.

Step 6. Calculating the Net Present-Value of the Difference in the Two Projections.

Let’s take these six steps one at a time:

Step 1. Establishing the Economic Situation Before the Proximate Causal Event.

The best way to do this is to establish a financial “snapshot” of the person’s or entity’s financial situation as it was immediately prior to the proximate causal event. This should be easy enough to accomplish by using past financial statements and tax returns.

Trends need to be established so as to reflect how the financial condition has changed year over year to arrive at the present “snapshot,” and that can be accomplished by looking at historical financial statements and tax returns for the three to five previous years before the proximate causal event.

Step 2. Demonstrating the Most Likely Future Economic Situation Without the Proximate Causal Event.

Having established the past trend that brought the person or entity to the position that it was in immediately prior to the proximate causal event, you should then project that same trend into the future so as to establish a realistic and reliable estimate of future financial performance.

The projection should be carried out for as many years as it is felt the projection can be accurately made. That projection may be five years, and it may be twenty-five years depending on how reliable you feel a projection can be made.

In addition, if there was any known unusual factor, or factors, present that could positively or negatively impact future financial performance, then that factor, or factors, should be included in the analysis.

Note that the factors had to be known before the proximate causal event because the damages calculation will be as of the date of the proximate causal event. Otherwise, the factors should be thrown out.

Step 3. Defining the Proximate Causal Event and Tying it to the Damages It Caused.

The proximate causal event could be just about anything that negatively impacts a person or entity and their ability to generate as much income as they would have been able to generate but for the proximate causal event.

Some components of damages that make up Catastrophic Damages include:

● Personal and business property damages up to and including total loss.
● Loss of a market, such as the local market for a small business.
● Recovery time to rebuild a business and resume normal operations.
● A physical injury that prevents a person from earning at their previous level or from earning at all.
● The death of a person due to an accident, negligence, etc.
● A loss sustained by a business due to a temporary or permanent impairment in the access to their place of business.
● A loss to a business due to intellectual property factors, such as another company obtaining confidential information that takes away an advantage previously enjoyed by the now damaged company.
● A loss to a person or to a business because of increased borrowing costs due to their credit being impaired as a result of the Catastrophic event.
● Any of a limitless number of other factors.

Step 4. Establishing the Most Likely Future Economic Situation After the Proximate Causal Event.

This is the same process as described above in Step 2 except that it includes the negative influence of the proximate causal event. The number of years projected into the future should be the same as used in Step 2 above. In some cases, you will have financial statements that clearly reflect the impaired financial performance of the person or entity. In other cases, the person’s or entity’s ability to generate income may go away completely, for example, if a person is incapacitated and unable to work, or if a business is forced into bankruptcy or otherwise fails. In those cases, the loss is the present value of the entire income stream projected in Step 2 above.

Step 5. Demonstrating the Difference Between the Most Likely Future Situation Without the Proximate Causal Event and the Most Likely Future Situation After the Proximate Causal Event.

Once you have established the most likely future income projections before (Step 2) and after the proximate causal event (Step 4), the difference in these two projections is the gross amount of the loss for the projection period, not taking time into consideration. That is your base number that you carry forward into the next step.

Step 6. Calculating the Net Present-Value of the Difference in the Two Projections.

This is a mathematical exercise that involves net present-valuing the difference in the two projections (Steps 2 and 4) in order to arrive at an Economic Damages value as of the date of the proximate causal event.

Range of Values

It is acceptable to produce an Economic Damages value that is a range of values. Due to the level of judgment and speculation that is involved in estimating Economic Damages, it is reasonable to recognize that a particular factor could just as easily be one figure as another figure. In a case like this, it is acceptable to calculate the future financial performance using both factors, and then state the Economic Damages estimate as a range.

Expert Strategy

If you are involved in an insurance claim or related litigation that involves Economic Damages, then hire a professional that is familiar with Economic Damages calculation techniques, and that is highly experienced in providing supporting testimony at arbitration, mediation, deposition and trial. You can be assured that the expert will be questioned thoroughly regarding every step and factor of their methodology.

This methodology of calculating an estimate of Economic Damages is Daubert compliant since it assists the trier of fact to understand the evidence or to determine a fact issue, is widely published and peer reviewed, is generally accepted as an accurate procedure, and is capable of being replicated by another competent professional.

It is extremely valuable for both sides to engage an Economic Damages expert since usually the Plaintiff’s expert will provide an Economic Damages opinion and the Defendant’s expert will either provide an alternate Economic Damages estimate or a critical review of the estimate provided by the Plaintiff’s expert.



ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Banking and Economic Expert Witness Don Coker
Expert witness and consulting services. Over 500 cases for plaintiffs & defendants nationwide, 120 testimonies, 12 courthouse settlements, all areas of banking and finance. Listed in the databases of recommended expert witnesses of both DRI and AAJ.

Clients have included numerous individuals, over 75 banks, and governmental clients such as the IRS, FDIC.

Employment experience includes Citicorp, Ford Credit, and entities that are now JPMorgan Chase Bank, BofA, Regions Financial, and a two-year term as a high-level governmental banking regulator.

BA degree from the University of Alabama. Postgraduate and executive education work at Alabama, the University of Houston, SMU, Spring Hill College, and the Harvard Business School.

Called on by clients in 31 countries for work involving 61 countries. Widely published, often called on by the media.

Copyright Don Coker

Disclaimer: While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, it is not intended to provide legal advice as individual situations will differ and should be discussed with an expert and/or lawyer.For specific technical or legal advice on the information provided and related topics, please contact the author.

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